Archive for July, 2016

Bernie’s Sauce Stirring the Pot

My neck is way elongated for a big Hillary bump following the Dem convention. Honestly, the contrast between the parties could not be clearer. Hateful elephants and helpful donkeys. Pick ’em.

Today, I figured that Bernie Sanders did in fact do his do for Hillary at the convention. Lame, faddish commentators claim the hall rolled with unending boos when he endorsed her. Not so. There was a smattering and it seemed to reflect current Pew polling that 90% of the forever-Bernie folk plan to vote or Clinton.

A series of strong endorsements last night made the case. As a Sanders supporter, I am one of the disappointed. The FLOTUS gave a remarkable speech for Clinton, as did Sen. Al Franken.

Bernie did a 29-minute setup with conclusion for Hillary. If you have not heard it, do so now here. Also, catch Sarah Silverman’s six-minute and followup piece really was a or the highlight of the evening. Catch that here. The punchline is when she ad libbed to the only-Bernie types, “You’re being ridiculous!”

I’m calling a big bump for Clinton.

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Smell No Scat, Trump Believers

Sure, we can find it easy to disdain Donald Trump. He is often obnoxious and antisocial. He lies incessantly and cheats non-stop. He claims to be a great businessman, but leaves a wide wake of bankruptcies and other failures, “winning” only because of sneaky contracts that guarantee him income when partners and suppliers eat the losses.

Yet, and  a huge yet, maybe 40% or more of Americans who say they’ll vote in November are willing to go for him. While 40% to 49% for the candidate of one of the two major parties is common, Trump’s case is odd. The stench that should surround him with his history does not for his fans, who seem neither to see nor smell the scat.

Rereading a sociological classic, the main reason for that popped out. Eric Hoffer described Trump followers accurately and in detail in The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements. I looked up from the book to catch coverage of the Republican convention. The speakers and audience were dominated with irrational, emotional, even rabid chants and exclamations to jail or hang Hillary Clinton. The extra-judicial, even lynch mob fervor was it.

I talk a bit of how Trump transcended candidacy with mass movement. His people to a large extent are as Hoffer had it willing to subsume their thoughts and lives to a larger collective. They feel they are not in control of their lives and are convinced the existing power structure won’t fix that.

icon for podpress  Smell No Scat [15:59m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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Mass Murder Tipping Points

About a third the way in, a caller interrupted my gun portion of the rant. He was a a registered firearms dealer, and coincidentally Black. He opposes any additional gun laws or regulations. He was of the it’s-not-the-specific-gun side. We each got out our views. I’m glad he called.

Otherwise, I asked whether the Dallas deaths of five police officers by sniper would be a tipping point. Sandy Hook, to many of our surprise, was not. Will Dallas be? Will the many deaths of young Black men this year and last be?

I hold that we need both legal and cultural shifts. Obviously to me the cultural part is much harder. Take policing. Cops are no better than other professionals at prosecuting or judging their peers’ actions. No matter how plain the audio, video and witness testimony, cops almost invariably skate away from what the rest of the world sees as murder.

Likewise, with guns, they should be tools not toys. No what politicians now term common-sense restrictions should be a problem, but they are. Will the assassination of five officers in Dallas be a tipping point for legislation?

 

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Giving Hillary Hell

No secrets from me. You can hear my opinion on the no-criminal-charges for Hillary FBI report below. The punchline is I say she’ll end up with a slight bump in voter support (a.k.a. polls) when things settle.

Contrast that view with the big media chorus of doom for her. Every bozo from those on FoxNews to NBC and on creak and croak that the exoneration means the opposite — that she’ll be weighed down by this burden to the November election. (Insert The Game of Thrones scene here and chant, “Shame. Shame. Shame. Shame.”

As my mother used to say when she was disgusted with dummies, “For crying out loud in a bucket!” We can supposed the talking heads got together like middle-school kids to decide what color to wear that day.

I was amazed to turn on a local NPR station while I made dinner and heard the same. I like to delude myself that they folk tend to have more sense than the herd.

I did see a savvy recap of what’s up in a pollwatcher Daily Kos diary HCR Is Getting Gor’ed By An Incompetent Media. Spot on. We can also be sure when it’s clear they were wrong on this, they won’t apologize and ‘fess up anymore than right wingers would.

It’s enough to make me think for myself.

 

 

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:Hillary’s Email (Eek! Mail) Podcast

No free ride for Hillary Clinton. Yes, the FBI cleared her of criminal wrongdoing in its probe of her use of private email servers. Yet, it deemed that doing so was “extremely careless” and in particular did not follow federal protocols for archiving government records.

Those who hated and slandered her before are not about to start publicly apologizing to her or those in their social-media feeds. Plus, the fast majority of us who have been saying for a year or more that this would be the result also haven’t changed our opinion.

My questions were more along the lines of what does this mean to the third to half of the electorate who hadn’t totally made up their minds? I talk through why I think it will be a wash for her. The moderates and independents are likely to be more open to her. She’ll be a bump from the pending Democratic convention. The Hillary and sick-of-Democrats-in-the-White-House types won’t change their minds at all. I bet she’ll get a very modest bump in the polls when this settles.

 

icon for podpress  Hillary's Eek-mail [22:42m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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